Fuzzy Forecast Approach to Estimation of Complex Engineering System's Acceptability

Abstract

In this paper one of the most actual problem of complex engineering system design and development is discussed. The problem is how to explore and to estimate complex systems possibilities to be reliable and survivable during all its future life cycle. Fuzzy forecasting approach based on group-expertise procedure seems to be most convenient solution to overcome this problem. The new technique to realize worst-case analysis of complex system’s evolution behavior via fuzzy shaping of its acceptability domain is considered. For detailed investigation of acceptability domain evolution way we use composite aggregative criteria for quantitative as well as for qualitative estimation of complex system’s key performance characteristics. As a result of fuzzy forecasting and domain borderline shaping via group-expertise we hope to be entirely convinced that within the system acceptability domain all design specifications, all constructive restrictions and requirements either quantitative or qualitative are successfully satisfied. In conclusion perspective directions for system survivability and acceptability worst-case analysis based on fuzzy forecasting group-expertise procedure are observed.